Question: How Might a Hurricane on the Texas Coast Affect Austin and Central Texas?
Although known to occur at other times, hurricane season typically runs from June through November and is of greatest concern to those living along the coast. As seen with Hurricane Katrina hitting next door in Louisiana and forcing thousands of evacuees to find refuge here, hurricanes can have an impact on Central Texas even without being in the eye of the storm. But could a hurricane itself harm Austin? Yes, under certain conditions.
Answer: Texas is a big state and although we have a coastline that has been and will continue to be subject to hurricanes, Austin and Central Texas are a couple of hundred miles from the Texas Gulf Coast and not in the direct path of most Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico storms. But it is possible that a hurricane hitting the Texas Gulf Coast could impact weather conditions in Austin and all of Central and South Texas.
Flooding is Greatest Threat
Noted for their high winds, hurricanes also bring rain. South and Central Texas is prone to dangerous flooding even with the rainfall from storms much less powerful than a hurricane. As reported by News 8 Austin in Testing Texas' Readiness for Hurricanes, a large enough storm, such as a Category 5 hurricane, hitting the coast around Houston and pushing its way up the Colorado River could dump enough rain into the waterway to cause water levels to rise on Lake Travis and increase the risk of flooding here in Austin. Tornadoes also are a likely effect of this weather.
"The National Weather Service says the latest data collected indicates inland cities suffer more flooding than towns in a hurricane's direct path." Flash flooding is not to be taken lightly in Central Texas whether it comes from a hurricane or other severe weather.
Since 1990 floods and flash floods in Austin and Travis County alone have resulted in 7 deaths, over 200 injuries, and over $5 million in property damage. source: National Climatic Data Center (NCDC)
Hurricane Rita - Close Call for Central Texas
In September 2005, hard on the heels of the devastation of Louisiana and Mississippi by Hurricane Katrina, Hurricane Rita, at one point a Category 5 hurricane aiming for Galveston, threatened to make the above scenario come true for Central Texas. A change of course and weakening to Category 3 before making landfall kept the severe effects well away from Austin but for a while there was concern that this coastal storm posed serious problems for Central Texas.
As it was, Austin did end up housing over 17,000 evacuees fleeing the Texas coast while the Beaumont / Port Arthur area of the Texas coast and western Louisiana suffered the greatest damage from the storm. Despite the close call with Hurricane Rita, hurricanes don't typically pose a major threat to the Austin area.
Hurricane Season, Tourist Season, Moving to Austin
Although the potential for disaster is real, hurricane season is not something that should cause you to have second thoughts about visiting or moving to Austin. As Texas for Visitors Guide Danno Wise notes in his article Visiting the Texas Coast During Hurricane Season "some of the best Texas vacation activities and events occur during this time." As with any part of the country, keep a watchful eye on the weather but don't let the potential for severe weather keep you from enjoying being in Texas from the coast up through the panhandle.